Bakery Market Report 2026
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Bakery Market Report 2026
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Introduction
Welcome to the Bakery Market Report 2026. It’s got everything you need to know about the top 75 (actually, 76) players in the out-of-home bakery market, from behemoths such Greggs, Costa, and Subway to those building their estates at pace, like Gail’s, as well as regional craft bakeries including Birds, Cooplands, and Bayne’s, and even product specialists such as Cake Box and Rodeo Doughnuts.
As always, performance across the board varies significantly and even industry stalwarts have struggled against rising costs and falling consumer confidence. Nevertheless, there is much to be positive about with around half of the businesses increasing their estate as they look to meet customers where they are and entice them in with brilliant baked goods. The market changes rapidly and tactics are moving equally fast to ensure strategies are fit for purpose and delivering for firms and consumers alike.
Methodology
The Bakery Market Report is the annual authoritative tracker of the top companies that sell baked goods as a primary element of their food offering, benchmarked by the number of sites they have as of 1 January 2025. They operate in a non-supermarket retail, food-to-go, or eat-in format. The information offered in this report is sourced directly from the firms where possible, as well as financial reports, company websites, and Lumina Intelligence, and is correct as of April 2026. It was compiled and written by Amy North, Dan Riley, and Karen Bamford.
A polarised market
Coffee, sandwich, and bakery outlets showed resilience against a difficult market in 2025, with turnover up 4.7% to £13.4bn in 2025, according to Lumina Intelligence. This growth is mostly supported by estate expansion and inflation though as shopper numbers have shrunk slightly.
The rate of estate growth is slowing, as seen by the Bakery Market Report data. The 2025 version listed 13,910 sites – an increase of 422 on the previous year – while the 2026 report lists 14,189, an increase of 279. In both cases, not all of the increase can be attributed to site openings. Nearly half (228) of the new additions in the 2025 report were due to a change in methodology, with dessert parlours added to the list for the first time. This year has seen a continuation of this trend with Heavenly Desserts bringing 63 sites to the table, Cake Inn bringing 40, and Haute Dolci another 20, accounting for 123 in total (see ‘Who’s in and who’s out’ below for more information).
The positive news is that shoppers who do visit, do so more frequently and are spending more. In fact, spend has increased from an average of £8.97 per visit to £9.92, representing a 10.6% uptick.
“Coffee, sandwich and bakery outlets, while being driven by quality demands and premium innovation, still feel more accessibly priced to consumers compared to restaurants, pubs and even quick service restaurants,” says Flora Zwolinski, insight lead at Lumina Intelligence. “While consumers are highly aware of inflation and rising prices, they remain willing to spend, so long as they feel they are getting more in return.”
The most popular reasons for engaging with these businesses remains being ‘out and about’ with 21.8% share, followed by ‘treat’ at 14.1%. However, it is ‘wind down and relax’ showing the most growth gaining 1.1 percentage points of share of occasion from 6.6% to 7.7% over the past year.
“The UK out of home landscape is being reshaped by a more deliberate, value-conscious consumer, gravitating to affordable quality, daily ritual, and a strong sense of place and belonging. The outlets that succeed next will be those that don’t just meet demand but actively shape how modern eating out fits into tighter, more intentional lifestyles,” explains Samantha Winsor, marketing manager, at Lantmännen Unibake.
Stuart Galbraith, head of category management at Baker & Baker, concurs, advising operators to have “absolute clarity on their mission and key target occasions”, ensuring their product mix and communications reflects this as well. “The offer is no different – across the board, there’s plenty of indulgent and affordable options for the shopper,” he says. “However, the mix has changed, with affordable and premium products topping the list, which leaves the squeezed middle.”
Galbraith urges businesses to carefully monitor and measure performance to optimise sales and not be afraid to replace poor performing lines. What’s more, he advises those in the out of home space to avoid looking to retailers’ food-to-go ranges for inspiration.
“Operators that try to closely mirror retailers’ offerings may come unstuck – they need to provide consumers a different experience and a reason to visit,” he asserts.
A perfect storm
It would be remiss to talk about the market without acknowledging the increased pressure businesses are under to thrive, or simply stay afloat, in the current climate.
There's a “perfect storm” facing bakers according to Craft Bakers Association CEO Karen Dear, who points to rising costs, labour shortages, and cautious consumers. “Bakeries are being forced to make tough decisions, including carefully raising prices, reducing hours and running leaner teams to stay competitive,” she says, however, “for many businesses, there is very little left to absorb, with margins under significant pressure and resilience being tested”.
This has seen some smaller firms exit the market or seriously reduce their estate over the last year with Carlisle-based Routledges the Bakers, Liverpool’s Baltic Bakehouse, and Butterwick in the Midlands among them.
Even Greggs wasn’t immune from the challenging market with its pre-tax profit falling by 9.4% to £171.9m vs the year prior [52 w/e 27 December 2025], although it did maintain its profitable status and with a serious capex programme in play. Rising costs of labour, food, and packaging, as well as a drop in footfall were attributed for the lower profit margin.
Indeed, the National Living Wage rose again as of 1 April 2026, now sitting at £12.71 an hour up from £12.21 the year prior and £11.44 in 2024/25.
This will “add pressure, particularly for labour-intensive operators” and those with higher overheads, believes Naomi Hemmings, senior marketing manager, Finsbury Food Group. “More broadly, it is also likely to weigh on consumer confidence again, which matters just as much,” she adds.
Operators will inevitably tackle this in different ways, but Hemmings asserts it “will not affect every operator equally, but it will reinforce the need to be efficient, relevant and clear on value”.
Value, notably, means different things to different consumers, with businesses responding appropriately. As Dear at the Craft Bakers Association succinctly puts it: “Chains compete on scale, while craft bakeries compete on differentiation.”
While the cost of labour is a struggle, finding it in the first place can be even trickier as the sector faces significant challenges around the availability and retention of skilled operators and bakers, notes Ronald Hoiting, head of marketing UK & Ireland at equipment supplier Rademaker.
“Modern production environments increasingly require a combination of traditional baking knowledge and technical expertise, making recruitment even more complex,” he adds. Things can be even worse at craft bakeries which “rely heavily on skilled individuals and are therefore more vulnerable to labour shortages”, Hoiting believes. As such, efficiency is the name of the game.
Bakeries are taking different approaches to this. Nicky Taylor, MD at Surrey-based Cavan Bakery, praised the firm’s financial director for “securing preferential pricing on key ingredients and utilities and closely monitoring the wages budget”. Proactive steps including rolling out Sunday trading and venturing into delivery via apps such as Just Eat and Deliveroo also helped the business to weather the storm, resulting in a positive start to 2026.
But it must remain cautious. “As tempting as it is to deviate from the budget when turnover is up, we continue to exercise financial discipline,” Taylor adds. “We have replaced under-performing shops, with new openings in higher footfall locations, as well as opening a 'factory shop' selling direct from our bakery production site.”
East Midlands family-run chain Birds Bakery delivered a “resilient” performance in 2025, according to MD Jamie Bird. However, like many businesses, it continued to face the challenge of lower footfall on the high street as well as rising ingredient and labour costs. As such, it was forced to more deeply analyse its customers’ purchasing patterns and the types of locations that best served them.
“Cost pressures required even stronger internal planning and forward forecasting, ensuring we could manage ingredient and labour increases responsibly while continuing to communicate the quality and craft behind our products when price adjustments were necessary,” Bird explains.
Who's in and who's out?
Thirty-five of the 76 businesses listed on the Bakery Market Report grew their estates in 2024 while 18 reduced theirs. Others have fallen off the list entirely, in some cases due to a brand exiting the market and some simply dipping below the cut off after changes to their estate. There are several new additions as well – some which reflect the changing nature and blurring of lines in the market while others previously flew below the radar.
Out: Cinnabon
All Cinnabon UK locations, including high street stores and shopping centre kiosks, ceased trading in 2025. Master franchisee for the US sweet bakery brand, EG On The Move, said the decision was not taken lightly but reflects the “strategic shift to focus on our core convenience retail business”. The bun specialist had been in and out of the report since its first appearance in 2022, dipping off in 2024 as its estate was heavily restructured with 13 stores closed, and re-emerging in 2025 as EG focused on high footfall locations.
In: Bakery 79
Bakery 79 first made a name for itself in 2025 when forecourt operator Park Garage Group converted 12 Greggs franchises inside its locations to the brand, with several more opening in the months since then. If its plans come to fruition, Bakery 79 is likely to climb the ranking pretty quickly. The Croydon-based, family-run company has revealed an ambition to open up to 30 new locations by the end of 2026, including 20 fully-fledged sites and 10 self-serve ones. Its menu features the likes of breakfast options, hot and cold sandwiches, pastries, sourdough pizzas, doughnuts, cookies, and muffins. Products are sourced from numerous third-party bakery suppliers and are either freshly baked off or finished in store each day.
In: Brick Lane Bagel Co.
Inspired by the famous bakeries in London, Brick Lane Bagel Co. was founded by father and son Stuart and Elliott Hearne. It now has 19 locations across Greater London and surrounding areas, including in Essex, Chelmsford, Croydon, and Upminster. They aimed to create an ‘exciting, bold, food franchise’ with a menu featuring a wide array of fillings such as Irish salt beef brisket, oak-smoked salmon, and smoked turkey breast, all sourced from some of the 'finest suppliers of food in the country'.
Out: Pure
Pure, which is owned by Healthy Retail Ltd, has dipped below the cut off with 12 sites, a reduction of seven vs the 2025 report. It also operates five delivery kitchens which are not included in the count. This reflects the brand’s desire to transform into a multichannel business with retail, catering, wholesale, and business streams. Its strategic report for the year ended 26 December 2024 noted that “not since 2019 has Pure entered a new year with such strong momentum”.
In: Heavenly Desserts
Following the addition of several dessert parlours to the list in 2025, Heavenly Desserts has been added this year. The business, founded in 2008, operates over 60 sites across the UK, including in Aberdeen, Bath, Cardiff, Derby, and London, to name a few. Its menu includes waffles, crêpes, milk cakes, warm cookie dough, and ‘dessert tapas’ with mini doughnuts, cannolo, mochi, and brownie bites featuring among the line-up. Notably, it has recently ventured beyond its foodservice roots by debuting a range of take-home traybakes for the retail market.
In: Cake Inn
Cake Inn probably should have been on the Bakery Market Report a long time ago, but it flew under the radar. The egg-free cake specialist opened its first store in Wellingborough and has grown its estate to 40 sites across England including in London, Birmingham, Manchester, and Leicester. Franchising has been the main method of expansion. Its range includes decorative celebration cakes in flavours such as Lemon & Raspberry Fusion, Lamington Coconut, and Pistachio Gulab Jamun.
In: Haute Dolci
The final dessert parlour debutant in our report is Haute Dolci, founded in 2017 by Nizam Mohamed – one of the people who helped create Heavenly Desserts a decade prior. Currently operating 20 sites in the UK, along with four in Pakistan and one more in Kuwait, the franchise enjoyed a strong 2025 driven by expansion and innovation. The menu leans into trending flavours and formats such as its Pistachio Kunafa range, while bestselling products include its Matilda Cake (a dense five-layered chocolate cake) and San Sebastian Cheesecake.
Fastest growing businesses
Greggs
Total: 2,739 sites
Change: +121 sites (+4.6%)
Gail's
Total: 183 sites
Change: +33 sites (+21.3%)
Cooks Coffee Company
Total: 95 sites
Change: +28 sites (+41.8%)
Cake Box
Total: 265 sites
Change: +26 sites (+10.9%)
Hotel Chocolat
Total: 91 sites
Change: +23 sites (+33.8%)
Starbucks
Total: 1,290 sites
Change: +18 sites (+1.4%)
Joe &
The Juice
Total: 90 sites
Change: +17 sites (+23.3%)
Ones to watch
We take a look at businesses with ambitions for growth which, if they come to fruition, would see them land on the Bakery Market Report’s top 75 list in the coming years.
Bread Ahead
Famed for its iconic doughnuts, London-based Bread Ahead is on the hunt for franchise partners in Greater London with an aim to open around 20 new shops over the next two years. This would see its UK estate nearly triple from the nine locations across the capital at present. The bakery, which began as a market stall in Borough Market in 2013, is looking for locations with “strong footfall, the right customer mix, and an environment that fits a premium bakery brand”, according to founder Matthew Jones, who added these could be on high streets, transport-led sites, or neighbourhoods.
Cinnamood
Unlike most of the firms on the ‘Ones to watch’ list, Cinnamood has yet to open a location in the UK. Regardless, the cinnamon roll specialist has made its ambitions known having appointed London-based Seeds Consulting to lead its UK franchise expansion, to add to its 56-strong store estate across Europe and UAE. It has already secured a multi-site franchise partner for the UK, with the first location set to open in Camden Town, London in Q2 of this year, followed by a second site at Westfield. The firm is targeting major metropolitan areas including Birmingham and Manchester. Its menu features classic cinnamon buns as well as the likes of blueberry, red velvet, apple, and salted caramel ones.
Doughnotts
Nottingham-based doughnut specialist Doughnotts has secured a six-figure debt funding package to support its next phase of growth, which includes franchising. Founded in 2015, it has grown from a small kitchen start-up to a multi-site retail operation with six stores across Nottingham, Beeston, and Lincoln. Its doughnuts are manufactured at a dedicated site in Nottingham which supplies its estate as well as a range of local cafés and eateries, including retail partners such as Co-op.
Dum Dum Donuts
Dum Dum is back and ready for business. Founded as a pop-up in Stratford by Paul Hurley in 2013, the doughnut specialist opened its first bricks-and-mortar site at Boxpark Shoreditch the following year, later expanding to run a total of 16 stores in London, Brighton, Windsor, and Birmingham. The pandemic put an end to this though, forcing the business to shutter all sites. Refusing to be left on the sidelines, in March this year, Dum Dum unveiled a 6,000 sq ft bakery, innovation, and training facility in Brentford thanks to a multi-million-pound investment which will support its ambitious plans over the next five to 10 years. The production unit has the capacity to support 10 new openings a year – several are in the pipeline for 2026 with one in Wembley Park already up and running.
Jersey Mike’s Subs
Arguably the most ambitious company on this list, at least when it comes to site numbers, is US-based sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s Subs. Yet to open a location on this side of the pond, the company has signed a franchise agreement to support its ambitions to open 400 stores in the UK and Ireland with JM Submarines UK – a newly formed firm led by Jersey Mike’s founder Peter Cancro. Jersey Mike’s is known for its deli-style subs filled with freshly sliced meats, cheeses and customisable salad ingredients. Among the top-selling items on its menu in the US are the Turkey & Provolone, Original Italian, and The Club Sub – all served cold – as well as the Mike’s Famous Philly hot sub.
Knead Bakery
Southwest chain Knead Bakery has big ambitions, but it’s being pragmatic about the speed at which it achieves them, aiming to have 100 sites up and running in the next 15 to 20 years. At present, it has five locations in Elkstone, Cirencester, Oxford, Tetbury, and Tewkesbury. The craft bakery business, which was co-founded by chefs Kris Biggs and John Hawes in 2020, is looking for “priority locations” in the southwest with Bath, Bristol, and Cheltenham on the map. It serves up a range of handmade pastries, patisserie, cakes, and savoury treats including sausage rolls, Danish pastries, almond croissants, sea salt & rosemary focaccia, and lemon meringue pie.
Public
Craft bakery chain Public is set to expand further across the Midlands and even up to Scotland having secured a seven-figure loan. The company currently operates four locations – in Leicester, Loughborough, and Nottingham – with sites in Bath, Bristol, Leeds, and Manchester all potential options for the future. At present, Public is on track to hit double-digits for sites by the end of 2026. Founder Raffaele Russo described the concept for Public as combining welcoming interiors, conducive to socialising and co-working, with exceptional food and drink. “Each venue features a theatrical on-site bakery, communal tables for co-working, and a vibrant social atmosphere that attracts students, professionals, and shoppers alike,” he said.
Sandwich Sandwich
Family-run firm Sandwich Sandwich is aiming to have 25 stores across London within the next four years as it looks to tap into the capital’s desire for deep-filled sandwiches that create “epic cross sections”. The business, which was founded by Nick Kleiner in 2012, currently operates six sites – four in the capital and two in Bristol. The latest opening in Broadgate, London saw it venture into the grab & go market as Kleiner looked to prove “food to go can still be genuinely exciting and creative”. Sandwich Sandwich’s menu spans breakfast, lunch, and snacking occasions with fillings such as Spanish chicken, rare roast beef, tuna crunch, and roast pepper & mozzarella.
Stir Bakery
Cambridge-based Stir Bakery is accelerating its expansion plans after smashing its crowdfunding target for the second successive year, with £291k raised in late 2025 (well above the £200k it was aiming for). Stir’s expansion plans include opening two new sites of its Marvin’s sandwich brand in parallel with each other following its first opening in autumn last year. It is also set to open three new Stir Bite Size stores, adding to its four cafés across the city which accommodate around 60 covers each. Supporting growth ambitions is an ongoing project to increase capacity at its bakery production site in Cambridge North, with new talent including head baker Frederic Guilbeau and head pastry chef Arthur Quaireau driving innovation.
Sourdough Sophia
Credit: Liam Debois
Credit: Liam Debois
London-based Sourdough Sophia has opened a new 7,000 sq ft production space near London Bridge station to support its ambitions of 20 sites across the capital. The craft bakery brand – which currently operates four locations in the city – is aiming to add four sites a year to its portfolio until it hits the magic number. Sourdough Sophia was founded in 2020 by husband-and-wife duo Jesse Sutton-Jones and Sophia Handschuh, and serves up a range of artisanal sandwiches, hand pies, cruffins, and cakes, with flavours rotated seasonally.
Estate of the nation
The struggles of high streets across the nation are no secret, so much so that Leon founder John Vincent declared in a recent interview with Times Radio, “the high street is dead”. He accused the government of “totally killing the industry” through the burden of costs placed on businesses.
There’s no denying that things are tough out there, but there is some hope on the horizon.
Data from Lumina Intelligence shows that the high street still accounts for the majority of occasions in the out of home market with 42.9%, however it is being slowly eroded by the likes of city centres and retail/industrial parks which are gaining ground [52 w/e 15 February 2026].
City centres are growing partly due to employers demanding increased office presence which is drumming up business for operators. “Since cities of office workers generally tend to over trade with more affluent shoppers, this is a perfect storm for more premium, quality driven menu innovation, which resonates with this group,” says Flora Zwolinski, insight lead at Lumina Intelligence.
However, the top three growing locations, according to Lumina Intelligence, are business parks/industrial estates, forecourts, and train stations. The latter, says Zwolinski reflects “increased movement from consumers, as well as expansion of operators to more travel locations”.
It’s a tactic employed by several firms on the Bakery Market Report with the likes of Wafflemeister opening its first travel site at Heathrow Terminal 4 and even Gail’s venturing into the space with a new site at Gatwick Airport. Wrights, meanwhile, looks to make headway in the forecourt arena with 10 sites now up and running with operator MFG, and Bakery 79 hitting the list this year after forecourt operator Park Garage Group rolled out the concept.
When adding new locations though, it's important to keep an eye on performance across the whole estate. “Bakeries operating across multiple sites may need to rethink the strategy across their property portfolio as a means of keeping control over costs,” believes real estate and auctions expert Andy Thompson, director at property auction firm BTG Eddisons.
It’s something the larger chains are used to. Greggs was the subject of some interesting press last summer with headlines akin to “Greggs shuts 56 branches amid ‘challenging’ start to the year” doing the rounds. However, the strategy isn’t out of the norm for the food-to-go giant, which is constantly rejigging its portfolio either by closing stores, opening new ones, or relocating existing ones.
Expansion is focused on formats that match modern consumer behaviour, believes Naomi Hemmings, senior marketing manager, Finsbury Food Group. “Coffee shops and sandwich and bakery operators are continuing to invest in franchise models, premium concepts and net new space, while the largest coffee brands are increasingly targeting smaller-format locations, drive-thrus and travel kiosks,” she says. “That reflects where the opportunity is: capturing consumers on the move, particularly around commuting and transport-linked occasions.”
While some look to tap into the increasing appeal of drive-thrus and retail parks, they are “not yet a priority for most craft bakeries”, notes Karen Dear, CEO of the Craft Bakers Association. She highlights that for many independents, the high street and local community “remain central to their business model”. While there is some interest in diversifying formats, “barriers such as cost, scale and operational complexity mean these models are not accessible for all”, she points out.
“What is emerging is gradual diversification rather than a full shift away from the high street. The future is likely to be a blended approach, with a strong local presence supported by selective expansion into new channels where viable,” Dear adds.
One area many are leaning into, thanks to the lower barrier to entry, is delivery and click & collect. A survival tactic during the pandemic, it has become a mainstay as consumers became accustomed to it. Lumina Intelligence data shows that delivered occasions grew at 1.2 percentage points over the past year and now accounts for 6.2% of all occasions, with click & collect making up a further 5%.
Bayne’s the Family Bakers, which operates 71 shops across Scotland, is one such business to embrace this, taking its digital transformation even further with the launch of an app.
Scottish Bakers CEO Lesley Cameron points to this as an example of a business “staying competitive without losing quality or brand identity”. The biggest challenge facing bakeries is “protecting margins while still offering value to customers” particularly as they face increased competition from food-to-go firms, and pressure around recruitment, labour efficiency, and rental costs, she says.
“To respond, many bakery and coffee shop operators are simplifying ranges, focusing on bestselling lines, using meal deals and bundled offers, improving labour productivity, and investing in convenience-led formats such as takeaway, click-and-collect and drive-thru,” Cameron adds.
Inside the new Wrights Wigston site in Leicester with MD Joe Hockenhull (left) and CEO Peter Hockenhull
Inside the new Wrights Wigston site in Leicester with MD Joe Hockenhull (left) and CEO Peter Hockenhull
Innovation nation
Operators keep things fresh
Menu innovation is a must-have in the bustling out of home sector, but with a challenging environment it is important that operators don’t let them get unwieldy.
Indeed, last year, menus shrank back and there was a significant dip in the number of items available at coffee & sandwich shops, falling by 10.9% from an average number of 147 in Q1 2024 to 131 in Q1 2025 [Lumina Intelligence Menu Tracker Quarterly Download for Q1 2025]. The mixed picture highlighted a divergence in strategy with some operators doubling down on efficiency while others leant into innovation to defend market share and stimulate demand.
“Coffee, sandwich and bakery operators have started to increase menus again albeit marginally,” says Flora Zwolinski, insight lead at Lumina Intelligence, noting that the increase is predominantly driven by drinks which have been the focal point of innovation of late (see Drink Trends below).
However, Zwolinski expects food items to pick up pace as there is growth in lunch and dinner occasions, meaning operators will look to target a wider range of consumer needs with NPD.
As with the wider bakery market, there is a divergence between consumers looking to treat themselves and those looking for healthier options.
“Treating remains a core consumption occasion that drives purchase intent. Consumers increasingly seek small moments of indulgence and comfort, especially as global uncertainty grows around us,” explains Samantha Winsor, marketing manager at Lantmännen Unibake.
Creams is among the operators to happily tap into demand for indulgence with a recent launch including Froffle Toast – French toast pressed in a waffle iron (see NPD section below).
Indulgence, perhaps, comes to the forefront even more for seasonal launches with operators expected to roll out new sweet and savoury menu options throughout the year.
“Limited-time items are key with consumers purchasing seasonal slants on products throughout the year – not just the bigger more well-known occasions,” believes Ryan Gaskin, group leader traditional trade at CSM Ingredients. “The limited-edition nature of these items creates a sense of ‘must have’ and are also popular on social media.”
Deep-filled sandwiches were among the in-demand items during the festive season, with many including lashings of cheese, gravy, and more pigs in blankets than you can shake a stick at. There was the Hot Christmas Stack from up-and-coming brand Sandwich Sandwich, for example, which was laden with roast turkey, bacon, sticky pulled turkey thigh, a fried sage & onion stuffing patty, crispy shallot crumble, cranberry sauce, and Heinz Seriously Merry Mayo, all inside a brioche bun and served with a pot of rich gravy.
Sandwich Sandwich's Hot Christmas Stack
Sandwich Sandwich's Hot Christmas Stack
Even healthier fast food chain Leon got in on the action with a Twisted Trimmings Sandwich featuring pulled turkey marinated in buttermilk and Baharat spices, rich apricot & pine nut stuffing, and grilled halloumi.
Health is wealth
On the other side of the NPD coin is health, a word which can vary wildly from person to person.
One thing gaining traction though are weight-loss jabs, with data from University College London estimating that 1.6m adults in England, Scotland, and Wales used them between early 2024 and early 2025, with an additional 3.3m saying they would be interested in them.
“For bakeries, this shift could see a number of businesses require investment in healthy alternative ranges to meet the demands of this growing customer base. If they don’t, they will be losing or missing out on a significant part of the market,” warns restructuring and financial advisory expert Julie Palmer who is a managing partner at advisory firm BTG.
It’s a trend very visible in supermarket food-to-go and ready meal ranges, often direct competitors to the out of home market, with several retailers rolling out options with more protein and fibre. This includes the likes of High Protein Chicken & Grain Salad and High Protein Pesto Chicken Sandwich from Sainsbury’s, as well as options at M&S under its Nutrient Dense range including Cauliflower Shawarma & Five Bean Houmous, Satay Chicken, Black Rice & Mango, and Roasted Butternut & Almond Grains bowls.
Pret Smokey Chickpea Mezze Super Plate
Pret Smokey Chickpea Mezze Super Plate
There have been some moves towards this in the out of home space with Pret arguably leading the pack when it comes to NPD. In July last year it rolled out Super Plates, a range of nutrient-packed salads in four flavours – Chipotle Chicken, Butternut Mezze, Miso Salmon, and Shawarma Chicken. It also recently expanded its popular half sandwich range with flatbreads which can be paired with a half baguette or soup for a personalised meal.
“New portion formats are becoming more important, especially smaller or more flexible options that speak to reduced appetites, sharing or changing eating patterns,” says Naomi Hemmings, senior marketing manager, Finsbury Food Group.
She also points to “clear momentum behind artisan-style and cleaner-label bakery”, particularly sourdough and products with “fewer, more recognisable ingredients”.
These can be seen in the likes of Gail’s menu with a Squash & Chipotle Fritter on Potato & Rosemary Sourdough, an Apple & Blackberry Crumble Cake, and SB & J Filled Cookie among recent examples.
A closer look at bakery NPD
Joe Ho Ho Sandwich, Joe & The Juice
Danish juice bar and coffee shop brand Joe & The Juice launched its first-ever festive sandwich in 2025 in the form of the Joe Ho Ho. Inspired by the classic Boxing Day leftovers, it combined turkey, crunchy slaw, rocket, sage shallots, red cabbage ketchup, and gravy mayo with Joe’s signature Scandi-inspired fibre-rich rye flatbread.
Raspberry & Pistachio Danish, Birds Bakery
The Raspberry & Pistachio Danish was the bestselling new product for Midlands-based bakery chain Birds last year. The pastry sees jammy raspberries swirled through pastry, with a dollop of frangipane and a sprinkling of pistachios on top. MD Jamie Bird says it “reflects our dual focus on flavour creativity and modernising our pastry lines”.
Malted Chocolate & Stout Cake, Gail’s
This individually portioned cake has been crafted with Irish stout and finished with white chocolate, Irish cream frosting, and a dusting of cocoa powder. Designed to mature over 24 hours, the cake uses wholemeal flour and Agrain 03 spent grain flour to amplify its malty undertones and rich chocolate flavours.
Cornflake Tart, Cooplands
The nostalgia-inducing Cornflake Tart from Cooplands was developed by Rising Star Award winner Emily Anderson. The original version was made with golden syrup, but a jam one was added following demand from customers. It's among the products tipped for a resurgence in the same manner as school cake.
Strawberry & Matcha Cookie, Costa
Building on the success of other seasonal sandwich cookies from the coffee giant as well as skyrocketing demand for all things matcha, it features white chocolate & matcha cookies sandwiching a filling of strawberry jam and matcha frosting, finished with a pink icing drizzle and freeze-dried strawberry pieces.
Open Rye Sandwiches, Ole & Steen
Danish bakery and coffee house Ole & Steen embraced its roots with this launch. Using its signature carrot rye as a base, the trio of options included a smoked salmon, herb & lemon cream cheese, fennel, fresh dill and micro herbs topped one, as well as a vegetarian smashed avocado one with peas, jammy egg, mixed seeds and pea shoots.
Biscoff Crunch Croissant, Soho Coffee
Tapping into consumer desire for indulgence and the continual demand for all things Biscoff, this flaky croissant is both filled and topped with Biscoff Spread, accompanied by a satisfying crunch from Biscoff Crumb on top for added texture. It follows in the footsteps of Soho Coffee’s Biscoff cronut, hot chocolate, and shake which are longstanding menu items.
Froffle Toast,
Creams Café
By pressing golden brioche French toast into a waffle iron, Creams Café has created a new hybrid: Froffle Toast. They’re available in sweet and savoury versions, including Apple Crunch topped with apple sauce, toffee drizzle, apple pie filling, white chocolate curls, and crumble; and Chicken Teriyaki with teriyaki sauce, teriyaki chicken bites, crunchy onions, and a drizzle of special sauce
Chicken Roll, Greggs
Greggs has expanded its sausage roll line-up with a new chicken variant. Joining the iconic sausage roll and vegan roll on the food-to-go giant's menu, the new Chicken Roll comes in at 305 calories and features seasoned chicken wrapped in layers of glazed puff pastry. Like the other rolls, it has a distinctive pattern on its pastry case to help staff and shoppers identify it.
Wake up and smell the coffee
Menus meet their matcha
Innovation in the coffee and wider beverage market continues at pace, regardless of whether operators have a food- or beverage-led business model.
“Coffee and hot drinks are a huge part of the market and continue to drive traffic,” says Naomi Hemmings, senior marketing manager, Finsbury Food Group. “Drink-led occasions are in growth and now account for roughly a quarter of eating out occasions.”
Looking at bakery and sandwich shops specifically, coffee consumption is up with sales increasing by 15.4% year on year [Worldpanel by Numerator, 52 w/e 15 June 2025].
So, what are the drivers behind this growth and how are businesses tapping into them? Plus, what does this tell us about what consumers are looking for from the market?
When it comes to the latter, “context matters”, according to David Cutler, head of training at Lavazza and an SCA-certified coffee expert, noting that convenience often leads the decision-making process. Although, he says, familiarity and repeat visits can be driven if quality expectations are met.
“Quality is a key differentiator. Many consumers are willing to pay more – or wait longer –for coffee they perceive as premium,” Cutler elaborates. “In commuter locations, speed often trumps everything, with queue length acting as the deciding factor. At the other end, price-led consumers prioritise value, with less sensitivity to quality differences.”
The value focus intensifies as consumers feel the squeeze, he adds, noting that price and value for money are front of mind for shoppers – something Greggs is reaping the rewards from. However, he believes a “higher baseline for quality is emerging” across the market.
Ice, ice, baby
One significant change in recent years has been the demand, and subsequent availability, of iced coffees – regardless of the season. Costa Coffee recently revealed that seven out of 10 matcha drinks sold in January and February in 2026 were iced.
“We’ve seen continued growth in iced coffee options,” explains Ian Bryson, managing director at coffee supplier Lincoln & York. “It’s not difficult to see why, our research shows that amongst 18 to 24-year-olds, cold coffee is now the most popular coffee order, with 51% ordering iced coffees or frappes when visiting bakery and sandwich shops.”
As such, operators have been getting more creative with the iced beverages available, even more so as some consumers see coffee “as a form of self-expression, influenced by mood, values and lifestyle” meaning personalisation is a must. Syrups are the basic first step to personalisation, with Bryson noting that caramel is the most popular option followed by vanilla.
Bryson also points to the “emergence of colourful options including spirulina and ube to add flavour and colour to iced lattes, as well as options that “dial up nostalgia”, such as those based on classic desserts like sticky toffee pudding, cherry Bakewell, and tiramisu (see NPD below).
This can also be seen in the matcha market. Greggs may have been a tad behind the curve, rolling out its iced matcha range in February 2026, but it did so with a trio of flavours – original, vanilla, and strawberry. Costa, which launched its matcha range nationwide in January, quickly embraced new flavours in the form of a Strawberry Coconut Iced Matcha Latte and Cherry Vanilla Iced Matcha Latte, as well as merch with matcha plushies and cup cosies to lure in 18-to-30-year-olds.
“Matcha, while no longer at peak hype, has left a lasting legacy,” notes Lavazza’s Cutler. “It opened the door to more experimental flavours, bold colours, and high levels of customisation – trends that continue to shape innovation today.”
It’s likely some of this innovation will be materialise outside of tea and coffee-based drinks as Cutler notes that functional and wellness options are gaining traction, including better-for-you beverages. Notably, Starbucks has recently launched Protein Cold Foams which can be added to any drink for a 15g protein hit. Meanwhile Joe & The Juice offers consumers the option to customise smoothies with the likes of ginger and turmeric, with some menu options including a fibre booster, collagen & whey protein, and maca powder as standard.
A matcha made in heaven
What consumers are having on the side of their on-trend beverages is also noteworthy.
“Progressive menus are aligning seasonal beverage trends with bakery innovation,” highlights Samantha Winsor, marketing manager, Lantmännen Unibake. “The current enthusiasm for pistachio and salted caramel in coffee shop drinks, ice creams and desserts is cementing these flavours as modern classics. Consumers expect to see this reflected in their pastries too.”
Costa embraced this last year with a cinnamon bun latte which could be purchased alongside a cinnamon bun, as well as a Strawberry & Matcha Cookie Sandwich available this year alongside its iced matcha menu. Elsewhere, Pret took inspiration from its iconic Love Bar to create accompanying drinks, described as having toffee, nutty, and chocolatey notes, and delivered in latte or flat white form.
This also lends itself to promotions, as Winsor notes meal deals and drinks & pastry promos remain “the most effective tool” for driving bakery-and-beverage attachment. “When consumers perceive genuine value, such as a quality pastry with their morning coffee at a bundled price, they're more inclined to trade up from a solo coffee purchase,” she adds.
A closer look at beverage NPD
Sweet Ube Frappe, Costa
Tapping into the trend for colourful drinks and unusual flavours is the Sweet Ube Frappe and accompanying Sweet Ube Hot Chocolate. Described as indulgent drinks for those ‘mid-afternoon moments’, the frappe has a purple hue, a slight hint of nuttiness, and a swirl of whip on top.
Iced Caramel Protein Americano, Starbucks
Described as a lighter option for coffee lovers, this Americano delivers a 15g protein hit over Starbucks signature espresso with water and ice. What’s more, the Protein Cold Foam, available in caramel and vanilla options, can be added to any Starbucks drink.
Darjeeling & Strawberry Iced Tea, Gail’s
Prepared with second flush Darjeeling from Jing, the tea is brewed with up-cycled strawberry pulp to infuse it with fresh strawberry flavour and Szechuan pepper for a ‘deeply aromatic piquancy’. It’s then blended with a splash of strawberry cordial and freshly-pressed strawberries.
Strawberry Iced Matcha Latte, Greggs
Jumping on the matcha bandwagon, Greggs unveiled a trio of iced matcha lattes in original, vanilla, and strawberry variants. The strawberry one is made with matcha green tea, semi-skimmed milk, strawberry flavoured syrup and vanilla flavour syrup with sugar and sweetener.
Tiramisu Hot Gelato Shake, Kaspa's Desserts
Inspired by the classic Italian dessert and utilising Kaspa's gelato, this limited-edition indulgent drink sees a Tiramisu gelato shake topped with mascarpone and whipped cream. If that wasn't enough, the drink is finished with a dusting of cocoa powder and a chocolate dipped lady finger.
Muscle Up, Joe & The Juice
This functional smoothie is made with raw cacao, double collagen, whey protein, creatine, date puree, ice and Sproud M*lk for the ultimate health kick. Add-ons are available for those looking for a even more benefits – a Joe’s Brain Blend with Lion’s Mane and maca powder among them.
Cut allergens. Cut complexity. Keep the quality.
For UK bakery operators, the past couple of years have been a test like few periods before. Dairy prices rose significantly between 2020 and 2025, with the steep price increase in milk (46%) and butter (53%) having a major impact on operation costs1. That’s as well as tackling the increasing demand for allergen-free products. In fact, free-from bakery products are currently growing at nearly three times the rate of standard baked goods2.
All of this demands an effective balance between managing allergens and simplifying your operations.
Flora Professional provides a 1:1 swap for dairy across your bakery’s entire portfolio. The range is free from major allergens and delivers the incredible flavour and consistency your customers expect, without changes to your recipes. That means fewer SKUs to source and manage, a simplified supply chain and streamlined production.
Unlike dairy, which remains vulnerable to farmgate price swings, seasonal supply pressures and global commodity markets, Flora Professional supports stable, predictable pricing to help protect margins.
It’s also better for the planet. Flora Professional Plant B+tter delivers a 65% lower climate impact vs the same amount of dairy butter3, while the range uses less land and water overall.
Fewer allergens, fewer moving parts – quality intact. For bakeries seeking efficiency and resilience, it’s a no-brainer.
Visit the Flora Professional website for more information.
1. FDF UK Food & Drink Inflation 2025-26 Forecast Report
2. From Niche to Necessity: Why Free-from Bakery Is Outpacing the Market
3. Quantis LCA commissioned by Upfield Professional on Flora Plant Butter 250g in UK&I, 2022
Sweet bakery’s role in redefining value, quality and growth in OOH
Lantmännen Unibake UK is part of the Lantmännen Unibake group, operating 30+ bakeries across more than 13 countries worldwide and forming part of Lantmännen’s food business. We continue to invest in quality, capability and insight to support bakeries navigating an increasingly competitive, value conscious market.
The UK out of home bakery market continues to outperform, with turnover growing by 4.1% across sandwich and bakery and 5.3% across coffee shops and cafés, despite ongoing cost pressures. Our insight highlights where growth is being unlocked across the bakery sector. This strong performance is driven by demand for everyday bakery favourites that deliver on freshness, quality and value. Danish and French pastries are playing an increasingly important role, as consumers seek indulgent, visually appealing treats that extend beyond breakfast into multiple dayparts.
At Lantmännen Unibake UK, we incorporate market and consumer insight into the way we support our customers. Our ready to bake frozen pastries reduce labour and waste while delivering consistent freshness and quality, creating more time for hand finishing and premiumisation. Our solutions help operators turn insight into commercial advantage.
With category expertise, operational know how and deep consumer understanding, Lantmännen Unibake UK is a trusted partner for sustainable bakery growth.
Visit the Lantmännen Unibake UK website for more information.
How to stay competitive in a changing market
“As consumer preferences evolve, retail bakers in the UK can distinguish themselves by focusing on quality, health-conscious options, sustainability, and technology.
Emphasising craftsmanship through the use of high-quality ingredients and traditional methods will help bakeries stand out. Expanding product lines to include wholemeal, gluten-free, and low-sugar options addresses the growing demand for healthier choices, while transparent ingredient sourcing and clear nutritional labelling help build customer trust.
Sustainability is also crucial. Bakeries can appeal to environmentally conscious consumers by reducing food waste, using eco-friendly packaging, and sourcing ingredients locally. Additionally, investing in technology can improve operations and profitability. Automation can enhance efficiency, while a robust digital presence is essential for attracting and retaining customers. Key strategies include utilising online sales and delivery platforms, engaging in social media marketing, and forming community partnerships.
Labour shortages continue to be a significant challenge. Investing in apprenticeships, staff training, and automating repetitive tasks can help reduce reliance on skilled labour. By combining tradition with innovation, retail bakers can adapt to market demands and ensure long-term success.
Rademaker can assist bakeries with both automation and training. The Radini production platform has been specifically developed for bakeries looking to automate or expand their production. Importantly, automating with Radini does not mean sacrificing tradition; it combines efficiency with gentle dough handling to maintain the authentic, handmade look and feel that customers expect.
If you're ready to expand your bakery, Radini is a scalable and flexible solution that supports growth while preserving your artistry.”
Ronald Hoiting, head of marketing UK & Ireland at equipment supplier Rademaker
Visit Rademaker’s website for more information.
Speed of product development defines competitiveness
In the bakery market, operators are under sustained pressure from rising ingredient costs, higher labour expenses, and rapidly shifting consumer expectations around health, value, and premiumisation. The result is a more competitive environment where margins are tighter, and product decisions carry greater risk.
Against this backdrop, speed of product development is now a key driver of bakery competitiveness.
Specifications are managed in isolation. Supplier data sits in separate systems. Artwork, labelling, and compliance requirements introduce additional layers of complexity. As a result, product development cycles are often slower, less connected, and more resource-intensive than current market conditions allow.
This creates a widening gap between market opportunity and execution.
The most competitive bakery operators are already closing this gap by moving towards more connected ways of working - linking formulation, specification management, supplier collaboration, and compliance through TraceGains as a single, digital approach to product development.
The impact is faster, more confident decision-making across the lifecycle. Reformulation can respond more quickly to ingredient and cost volatility. Packaging and labelling updates are handled with greater consistency and accuracy. Cross-functional teams are better aligned from concept through to launch.
In a market where competition continues to intensify across high street, travel, and food-to-go channels, the ability to move from idea to shelf quickly is becoming a defining factor in performance.
Ultimately, success is no longer determined by innovation alone, but by how efficiently that innovation can be delivered to market.
Explore how connected product development is helping bakery teams move faster from concept to shelf by visiting the Tracegains website.
This image is AI generated using Gemini.